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A series of domestic economic data is keenly awaited this week based on which RBI will decide its stance on interest rate which will set the tone of the market trend
Last week, the Indian markets ended flat with the Sensex and Nifty closing at 16,867 and 5,059 respectively gaining merely 46 and 19 points each.
The week started off on negative note on fresh worries over the global slowdown after dismal US jobs data and slowdown in India’s services sector growth for August 2011 was reported. However, the negativity was short-lived led by a series of positive news. The Moody’s Investors Services affirmed BAA3 rating for India's foreign currency government debt and its BA1 rating for local currency debt. Also to help investors shield their investments from mark-to-market volatility, RBI is looking to re-launch inflation-indexed bonds (floating rate bonds linked to the inflation rate).
Moreover, the annual food inflation fell to 9.55% in the week ended 27 August 2011, from 10.05% in the previous week while the fuel inflation was at 12.55%. This made the market gain further momentum. Following the release of inflation data, RBI said that a change in anti-inflationary monetary stance will be motivated by signs of a sustainable downturn in inflation.
However, on Friday, 9 September the domestic markets pared its three day gain after US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke gave no signal on fresh stimulus for the economy in his much awaited speech. Also, India’s exports slowed sharply as it grew 44.2% in August 2011 from a year earlier, totaling $24.3 billion. This news too weighed negatively on the investor stance.
In addition, RBI governor Subbarao raised concerns on excess supply of gilts in the secondary market. To resolve this concern the governor said banks need to set aside minimum mandatory amount of deposits to invest in government bonds.
Week Ahead
We expect the domestic markets, to continue its staggered trend as data on industrial production for July 2011 and headline inflation for August 2011 is expected this week. This data will provide a clear picture of RBI’s stance on interest rate at its mid-quarter monetary policy review on 16 September 2011.
As always, we suggest your investors to invest in good quality equity schemes to moderate the impact of market volatility.