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  • Guest Column Mutual funds cushion the impact in a bear market

    Mutual funds cushion the impact in a bear market

    Comparison between fall in NAV of mutual funds and fall in stock prices from their historic peaks gives us the answer.
    Vijai Mantri Aug 21, 2019

    For years, there have been many debates about the performance of Indian fund. In fact, many investors claim that they have seen a steep fall in the performance of their mutual fund holdings. Such a feeling is accentuated by the constantly running commentary on various communication channels, which make investors panic. When I meet investors, most of them tell me that they have not made money in mutual funds; worse, many feel they have lost money and admit that this was their biggest mistake.

    These conversations nudged me to take a close look at the performance of mutual funds. To make it more comprehensive, I have compared the fall in NAV of mutual funds with the fall in stock prices of direct equity from their historic peaks.

    Here is a synopsis of the fall in NAV of mutual funds versus the fall in stock prices of top 500 stocks from their historic peak.

    Percentage fall from historic highs

    Stocks

    Number of stocks

    % of total

    Number of MF Schemes

    % of total

    Fall below -10%

    42

    8.4%

    63

     30.6%

    Fall between -10 to -20%

    79

    15.8%

    105

     51.1%

    Fall between -20% to -30%

    60

    12.0%

    29

     14.1%

    Fall between -30% to -40%

    75

    15.0%

    8

     3.9%

    Fall between -40% to -50%

    75

    15.0%

    1

     0.5%

    Fall between -50% to -75%

    141

    28.2%

    0

     

    Fall between -75% to -90%

    19

    3.8%

    0

     

    Fall above -90%

    9

    1.8%

    0

     

    Total

    500

     

    206

     

    Extrapolating from this data, the chances of an over 50% fall in index is over 33%, such a possibility is zero in mutual funds.

    Another way to look at the performance of MF schemes and see how the NAV of these funds have fallen from their historic peaks is to compare Nifty Small Cap 100 index with small cap funds. While Nifty Small Cap 100 was at 9580 on January 15, 2018, it fell to 5328 on August 05, 2019, a fall of 44.4%.  Most small cap MF schemes also hit historic high and low NAVs during the same time frame. Here is the table

    Small Cap Schemes

    Fall from historic high NAV

    Small Cap Schemes

    Fall from historic high NAV

     
     

    Sundaram Small Cap Fund

    -41.3%

    Franklin India Smaller Cos Fund

    -28.2%

     

    HSBC Small Cap Equity Fund

    -38.7%

    SBI Small Cap Fund

    -28.1%

     

    Aditya Birla SL Small Cap Fund

    -35.9%

    Quant Small Cap Fund

    -27.6%

     

    DSP Small Cap Fund

    -34.8%

    Kotak Small Cap Fund

    -27.1%

     

    Union Small Cap Fund

    -33.4%

    ICICI Pru Smallcap Fund

    -25.3%

     

    Reliance Small Cap Fund

    -30.2%

    HDFC Small Cap Fund

    -22.9%

     

    L&T Emerging Businesses Fund

    -29.6%

    Axis Small Cap Fund

    -8.9%

     

    IDBI Small Cap Fund

    -28.6%

     

     

     

    Average fall in NAV (as on August 05, 2019)  from Historic High NAV

    -29.40%

     

    You can see that the average NAV fall of small cap funds from the historic peak was 29% as against the fall of 44.4% in the Nifty Small Cap 100. Interestingly, not a single small cap fund fell more than its benchmark.

    The story of midcap funds is no different. For instance, Nifty Midcap Index fell 28.7% from its peak i.e. between January 23, 2018 and August 05, 2019.

    Now let’s look at the fall in NAVs of mid cap funds during the same period.

    Mid Cap Schemes

    Fall in NAV from historic high

    Midcap schemes

    Fall in NAV from historic high

    SBI Magnum Midcap Fund

    -27.3%

    Taurus Discovery (Midcap)

    -20.5%

    UTI Mid Cap Fund

    -26.8%

    HDFC Mid-Cap Opportunities

    -20.4%

    DHFL Pramerica Midcap Opp

    -25.9%

    Motilal Oswal Midcap 30

    -19.7%

    IDBI Midcap Fund

    -25.6%

    Quant Mid Cap Fund

    -18.0%

    Aditya Birla SL Midcap Fund

    -25.4%

    Kotak Emerging Equity

    -17.8%

    Sundaram Mid Cap Fund

    -25.3%

    Tata Mid Cap Growth Fund

    -17.8%

    L&T Midcap Fund

    -24.2%

    Reliance Growth Fund

    -17.6%

    Edelweiss Mid Cap Fund

    -24.1%

    Invesco India Midcap Fund

    -17.3%

    BNP Paribas Mid Cap Fund

    -23.9%

    DSP Midcap Fund

    -16.2%

     

     

    Franklin India Prima Fund

    -15.8%

    Baroda Mid-cap Fund

    -22.0%

    Mahindra Unnati Emrg Bus

    -14.6%

    ICICI Pru Midcap Fund

    -21.1%

    Axis Midcap Fund

    -10.1%

    Average fall in NAV (as on August 05, 2019) from historic high

    -20.80%

    The average fall in NAV of midcap fund is close to 21% as against 29% of Nifty Midcap Index. Again, no scheme witnessed fall in NAV more than the index.

    Other actively managed funds like large cap, large & mid cap, multi cap, value, contra, focus and ELSS funds witnessed average drop of 12% in their NAVs.

    Here is the summary of the performance of all actively managed diversified equity MF schemes.

     

    No of schemes

    Average fall in NAV from historic high

     

     

     

    Small Cap Schemes

                 15

    -29.4%

    Mid Cap Schemes

                 23

    -20.8%

    Other Schemes

               161

    -12.3%

     

     

     

    All Schemes

               197

    -14.7%

    This indicates that the impact of market downfall is less in mutual funds compared to direct stocks. However, most investors see their equity exposure fungible and do not distinguish between direct stocks (where losses has been much deeper and severe) and MFs (where losses has been much less).

    Are “Mutual Fund Sahi Hai” for investors? Perhaps Yes!

     

    Vijai Mantri is the Chief Investment Strategist, Mentor and Co-Founder of JRL Money. The views expressed in this article are solely of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cafemutual.

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