Swapnil Suvarna expects the market mood to remain pessimistic next week. He feels that the lower-than-expected Q3 results escalating euro-zone crisis and tensions with Iran could dampen the Indian market outlook.
Sensex and Nifty ended the week at 16,155 and 4,866 gaining 287 and 112 points, respectively, led by positive domestic economic data and global cues, which saw an across board buying by institutional investors.
Week Ahead
We expect the market mood to remain pessimistic as institutional investors would be closely watching Q3 2011 corporate earnings, which would give them an indication on the growth for the year 2012. Moreover, the euro-zone debt crisis seems to be worsened after France, Austria and Italy were stripped from AAA credit rating by S&P, with Spain being said to be next on line. Reports that a group of private lenders have failed to reach an agreement to trim Greece’s debt burden will further escalate the European outlook.
On the domestic front, the current tensions with Iran will further raise concerns of soaring oil prices. Any positive development in the global arena or bargain buying by institutional investors will spike short spell of rally.
To negate the current market uncertainty, suggest your client to continue investing in equity funds through the SIP route.
Week Rewind
The week started off on a flatter note following concerns over tensions with Iran and the PM’s remarks that the economy would grow at 7% this fiscal. However, the market gained some momentum after global rating agency Moody’s upgraded India’s short-term foreign currency rating from speculative to investment grade, which is expected to help domestic companies raise finances from abroad at healthier rates.
Government’s notification of 100% FDI in single-brand retail, and hopes of a tax reform in the upcoming budget following media reports that state governments has given their in-principle approval to a proposed national goods and service tax (GST) boosted the market sentiments. The domestic markets still lost its ground after index heavy weights Infosys and HDFC reported subdued revenues and lower-than-expected Q3 results.
The market saw a rebound led by growth in November industrial production numbers and optimism in global cues following successful bond auctions in Spain and Italy. Moreover, the ECB’s decision to keep the interest rate unchanged further boosted the market outlook.
